Bank of England Signals Caution Over Help to Buy

This article by Hilary Osborne of theguardian on October 16th, 2013 reveals BoE's concern on the impact of Help to Buy that cause housing prices to rise.

Concern at the Bank of England about the impact of the government's Help to Buy mortgage scheme came to light on Tuesday as official figures showed the British property market has exceeded its 2008 peak.

Martin Weale, one of nine members of the Bank's rate-setting monetary policy committtee (MPC), warned that the scheme to underwrite home loans could push up prices.

Admitting that house prices were already rising "appreciably more rapidly" than had been expected, Weale said there was a risk that "if the mortgage-guarantee element of Help to Buy is not priced satisfactorily, it will add to demand while supply is weak, leading to increased pressure on prices".

The British property market hit a record high in August, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which showed the average cost of a home is now almost £250,000.

The ONS data showed that even before the launch of the second phase of the mortgage-guarantee scheme, house price growth was gathering pace.

Its main index, which measures the price paid in purchases financed with mortgages over the month, surpassed its previous peak by 0.3% to hit 186 in August. That was its highest level since its launch in 1968. It put the average price of a home in Britain at £247,000.

In written evidence to the Treasury select committee, Weale said a booming property market could distort the economy. "Rising house prices may make people feel cheerful and more prosperous, thereby supporting household spending," he warned.

"But rising house prices impose a burden on those who do not yet own houses but aspire to in the future. Like government borrowing, rising house prices can crowd out productive investment."

Weale's submission was published 24 hours after the incoming deputy governor of the Bank, Sir Jon Cunliffe, said Threadneedle Street would keep a "very firm eye" on lenders as Help to Buy was rolled out.

However, Cunliffe said it was "too early to say we are entering into a bubble".

The second part of the Help to Buy scheme, which offers lenders a taxpayer-backed guarantee to encourage them to offer loans to borrowers with small deposits, launched last week and has already prompted a flurry of mortgage applications from homebuyers.

Royal Bank of Scotland, which was the first lender to offer 95% mortgages through the latest phase of the scheme, reported that it had booked 5,000 appointments with prospective borrowers in the first three hours after the launch and taken 10,000 calls in the first four days – double its usual volume. It has extended branch opening hours to cope with demand.

According to the ONS figures, the rate of house price inflation increased through the summer, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.8% in August, up from 3.3% in July.

However, the growth figures harboured wide regional disparities: the year-on-year increase reflected growth of 4.1% in England, 1.1% in Northern Ireland and 1.0% in Wales, in contrast to a fall of 0.7% in Scotland.

The ONS noted that the capital remains a strong outlier in the property market.
It said that while "house price growth remains stable across most of the UK … prices in London are increasing faster than the UK average".

Its index showed prices in London rose by 8.7% in the 12 months to August and that, when figures for the capital and the rest of the south-east were stripped out, UK house prices were up by 2.1% over the 12 months.

Only in London and the south-east were prices higher than at their previous peak. However, the east of England and the south-west were coming close to that level, the ONS said. The ONS data showed that new entrants to the housing market have seen a steeper rise in prices than homemovers, with prices paid by first-time buyers up 4.9% on August 2012's figure, compared with a 3.3% rise for movers.

In August 2013, the average price paid for a house by a first-time buyer was £185,000, while existing owners paid an average of £283,000.

Despite the headline figures suggesting that prices are running away, economists said activity was still well below the levels recorded before the financial crisis began, and only London was giving real cause for concern.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "While the strength of house price rises in London is becoming an increasing concern and pushing up the overall national increase in house prices, the ONS data support the view that we are currently a long way off from an overall housing market bubble emerging.

He added: "In fact, in many areas house prices are still well below their 2007 peak levels and rising only modestly at the moment." Housing eceonomists at Capital Economics said the ONS figures were "weighted towards high-value homes and therefore the very strong London market. On most measures, prices are still 10% to 15% below their previous peak."

However, they ackowledged that price rises had outstripped their expectations and that in the short term Help to Buy could give a "significant boost" to the number of buyers.

"While we suspect many will fail the affordability tests, it will put some upward pressure on prices," they said.

"There is a risk that expectations of a new house price boom will become self-fulfilling, even if Help to Buy supports only a few buyers. In that case, the Bank of England is likely to step in to calm the market."

Article Source: http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/15/house-prices-hit-record-high

House Building Growth Continue to Rise

This article of Belfast Telegraph.co.uk on October 2nd, 2013 shows the increasing demand of house building and now at its fastest pace for a decade.

Home building grew at its fastest pace for a decade in September in the latest sign of the housing sector forging ahead amid Government initiatives such as the Help to Buy scheme.

Figures from the closely-watched Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed residential construction activity growing at the highest rate recorded since November 2003.

The wider construction industry continued to grow strongly though the reading of 58.9 - where 50 separates growth from contraction - represented a slowing in the pace of expansion compared to 59.1 seen in August.

It was dragged down by an easing of growth in civil engineering from an August high.
However, commercial construction continued to forge ahead, increasing output at its fastest since May 2012 as analysts predicted a surge in occupier demand pushing up rents.

The sector was badly hit by the economic downturn but Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, which carried out the survey, said: "Construction is no longer the weakest link in the UK economy."

The figures showed the sector had grown for the fifth month running, adding to hopes that overall gross domestic product for the third quarter will have increased by as much as 1%.

Optimism about the outlook for the year ahead is at its strongest since April 2010, while jobs rose for the fourth month in a row, encouraged by increased volumes of new work, the report said.

Anecdotal evidence pointed to greater levels of spending among both public and private sector clients.

David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, said: "The construction sector is firing on all cylinders.

"Having been in the doldrums so long, builders are using this renewal as a platform to invest, with employment seeing the most dramatic upturn in close to six years."

Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "House building activity is seeing particular strength which is welcome news given concerns that a shortage of properties risks contributing to a new housing market bubble."

Kelvin Davidson of Capital Economics said predictions that commercial rents would only edge up modestly over the year were looking likely to be surpassed.

He said the data suggested property developers were increasingly confident about the prospects for occupier demand and hence the rental values they could expect.

House builders have been buoyed in recent months by easing credit conditions as well as Government initiatives such as Help to Buy.

The latest extension of the scheme offering mortgage guarantees to help buyers get onto the housing ladder has just been brought forward - despite fears it could lead to an overheating in property prices.

Article Source: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/house-building-growth-continues-29629083.html

 

Buy-to-let Mortgage Market is Prospering

According to a report by Landlord Today a large number of buy-to-let market is booming as shown in this article by propertysecrets on September 16th, 2013.

The latest figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show strong growth in the buy-to-let market report Landlord Today.

15,200 BTL loans were advanced in July, an increase of 12% compared to June. This represents a value of £2bn which was 11% higher than in June.

Lending for BTL house purchase was up 7% in July compared to June, a total of 7,600 loans. The value of these loans was £900m, up 13% from June.

There was strong growth in BTL remortgage lending which increased by 24% in July compared to June, a value of £1.1bn. This equated to 7,200 loans in July for BTL remortgage in total, an increase by 13.4% on June 2013.

The figures come just a week after a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed that house prices are rising at their fastest pace for almost seven years. Many pundits are predicting that the introduction of Help to Buy could lead to another house price bubble.

Stephen Johnson, managing director of commercial mortgages at Shawbrook Bank, said: "The announcement of the rise in buy-to-let lending is great news for the industry and Shawbrook is keen to support professional investors looking to take advantage of these market conditions.

"However, as an industry we must be careful to not create another bubble. At the moment lending conditions are very good but these are unusual times and the UK needs to create a sustainable market, not one lurching from peak to trough. Those looking to buy property need to ensure they look at the long term - investors need a portfolio that can still work in a more normalised interest rate environment. Sensible gearing will maximize returns, over-gearing now could potentially put at risk investors' hard-earned equity."

Article Source: http://www.propertysecrets.net/article/buytolet_mortgage_market_booming/3115.html