Tuesday 12 November 2013

31% Pay 'Unaffordable' Rent or Mortgage Costs

This article by Adam Shaw of BBC News UK on November 11th, 2013 reveals how people think property prices are too high in their area.

Thirty one per cent of people paying a mortgage or rent spend more than a third of their disposable income each month doing so, a survey for BBC Panorama suggests.
Housing charity Shelter said that makes mortgage or rent costs "unaffordable".
It said family budgets are being put under "enormous pressure" because of a "shortage of affordable homes".
The survey of 1,003 people also suggests 46% of people think property prices are too high in their area.
According to Shelter and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, spending more than a third of your disposable income on rent or a mortgage means you may not be able to afford other basic needs.
'Impossible choices'
Shelter chief executive Campbell Robb said: "The widely accepted test of affordability is that housing costs should take up no more than a third of your income."
"But in reality, many families don't have any option but to pay out much more," he said.
"This sees some faced with impossible choices every day - including between putting enough food on the table or paying for the roof over their head."
Among those affected by rising property prices is Abi Reilly, a 33-year-old special needs school teacher.
She lives in a terraced house in Reading with her husband, Chris, and two children, five-year-old Daniel and four-month-old Elsie.
They spend around 40% of their disposable income on rent.
Having rented 13 different properties over the past 10 years, Mrs Reilly said homeownership does not feel realistic.
"It feels too far away," she said. "How can we save for a deposit when our rents are going up, energy's going up, everything's going up, wages stay the same, house prices go up? Mathematically it doesn't work."
The Ipsos MORI survey commissioned by Panorama questioned a total of 1,003 adults - of whom 697 pay a mortgage or renting a property. Mrs Reilly would belong to the 31% of people in this latter group who pay more than a third of their disposable income on their mortgage or rent.
The survey also suggested that 46% of people think property prices are too high in their area and 39% would like to see property prices fall.
In August, the Office for National Statistics said the average price of a property had reached a record high of £247,000.
ONS figures also show that home ownership peaked at 69% of households 12 years ago. Since then it has been falling and is now at 64%.
'Risk of overheating'
Panorama has also looked at the Help to Buy scheme set up by the government in April to assist people who could afford mortgage repayments but were struggling to raise a deposit.
It allows buyers of new-build homes to put down a 5% deposit and take out a government loan for up to 20% of the value of the property. Help to Buy was extended to existing homes in October, under which the government partially guarantees mortgages.
Since it began, there has been a 6% rise in the number of new homes being built.
Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek magazine, said Help to Buy risks inflating prices and overheating the housing market.
"It's like pouring petrol over the car and setting fire to the whole thing," she said.
"You know you might get a little heat in the short-term but the end result is not actually what you wanted."
But the government has dismissed concerns about a property price bubble.
Housing Minister Kris Hopkins said: "In Yorkshire, the North East and Scotland, house prices have moved very little or in some cases have actually gone backwards."
"And that's reflecting where wages are and what money people have actually got to spend. "
He also told Panorama: "We've seen nothing yet to suggest there is anything, going anywhere near a bubble at this moment in time."
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Monday 11 November 2013

Scottish House Price 'Reality Gap' Narrows

This article by BBC News on November 11th, 2013 reveals the new report that buyers are willing to pay more than they actually achieve.

for sale sign  
S1homes said buyers were now prepared to pay more than they had been "for quite some time" 
 
The gap between what Scots hope to sell their properties for and the price they actually achieve has narrowed, according to a new report.

Property website S1homes found the "reality gap" narrowed in Scotland from 9% to 2% in the third quarter.

The change was driven by an increase in the amount buyers were prepared to pay, and not a drop in prices.

The S1homes report compared average asking prices with officially-registered settlement prices.

It found that the average selling price in Scotland increased by more than £8,500 to £161,748 in the third quarter, while, on average, properties sold for about £4,000 less than their asking price. The difference in the previous quarter was £14,500.

However, there were significant variations between the top and bottom of the market, with all property types except detached homes achieving more than the asking price.

Flats continued to perform well across Scotland, selling on average more than 17%, or £19,000, above their advertised price.

Terraced and semi-detached houses also sold well above what sellers hoped to achieve.
But detached properties continued to sell significantly below their asking price despite an increase in the average selling price during the quarter.

The average asking price for properties fell in most areas, except for East Renfrewshire, Fife and West Lothian.

In Edinburgh, the average selling price overtook the advertised price, due to an increase of 4.5% in the amount homes were sold for.

S1homes commercial director Ewan Stark said: "This quarter's report shows that there have been significant changes taking place in the property market.

"Buyers are now prepared to pay more than they have been for quite some time and that, coupled with a slight decline in average asking prices, is what has led to the upsurge in the volume of properties being sold.

"That's positive if you're looking to sell a property but the sharply rising prices at the lower end of the market aren't good news for first-time buyers."

Article Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-24865606

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Thursday 7 November 2013

UK ‘Pays Highest Property Taxes’

This article by This is Guernsey on November 7th, 2013 tells us that in the developed world, British people are the one who pays the highest level of property taxes.

British people pay the highest levels of property taxes in the developed world, a think-tank says
British people pay the highest levels of property taxes in the developed world, a think-tank says.
 
British people pay the highest levels of property taxes in the developed world and more than twice the average for the 34 rich countries in the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, according to a think-tank report.

The right-of-centre Policy Exchange said politicians should reject new levies on property – such as the “mansion tax” on residences worth over £2 million favoured by Liberal Democrats and Labour – and instead pledge to bring down housing costs by building 1.5 million new homes by the end of the decade.

The report called for at least one new “garden city” and changes to planning rules to deliver 300,000 new houses a year.

Councils that fail to hit their own housing targets should be forced to release land to local people who want to design and build their own homes, said the thinktank.
The report calculated that property taxes including council tax, stamp duty, inheritance tax and capital gains tax amount to 4.1% of GDP in the UK – the highest in the OECD and well above the average 1.8%.

By comparison, Canada levies 3.5% of national income in property taxes, the USA 3%, Japan 2.8% and Germany 0.9%.

Alex Morton, head of housing and planning at Policy Exchange, said: “No other developed country taxes property more heavily than the UK. Yet rising house prices and falling levels of home ownership have led to many calling for an increase to land and property taxes.

“But these issues will only be solved by genuine reform of the outdated planning system, not a tax raid on peoples’ homes. Politicians cannot try to do everything at once and must focus on the most crucial issues.

“The evidence shows where excess credit and under-supply exist, taxation or subsidy can only have a limited impact. That is why policymakers should ignore calls for a new round of property taxes and instead commit to spreading the benefits of homeownership and stabilising the UK economy by building at least 1.5 million new homes over the course of the next Parliament.

“This means serious reform of the planning system and creating new ways to deliver housing.”

A Government spokesman said: “The UK has the fourth lowest transaction costs for moving house with property taxation making up the smallest component of overall costs.

“The Chancellor has been clear there are no plans for a new house price tax on family homes. This Government has frozen Council Tax for hard-working people and cut business rates for small firms, despite the need to pay off the deficit left by the last administration.

“We have delivered a series of reforms to speed up and simplify the planning system, including a comprehensive package to support self-builders. House builders credit Government action for getting the housing market moving again, and schemes like Help to Buy are giving hard-working people a helping hand to increase home-ownership”
Dan Wilson Craw, spokesman for the PricedOut campaign for people who would like to buy a home but cannot afford to, said: “Every month, private tenants are seeing their dream of home-ownership slipping further from their grasp – and all the while they’re paying off the mortgage of their landlord who gets rich from rising house prices.

“This is a symptom of a society that treats houses as an asset to speculate on rather than somewhere for people to live. Tinkering with the tax system could help make the system fairer, but under-supply is the real problem. If political leaders were bold and built 1.5 million more homes over the next Parliament, they could make a real difference to the cost of living.”

Article Source: http://www.thisisguernsey.com/news/uk-news/2013/11/07/uk-pays-highest-property-taxes/

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Wednesday 6 November 2013

UK Services Sector Grows at Fastest Pace in 16 Years

This article by RTE News on November 5th, 2013 tells us that Britain's services sector activities increased at the fastest rate since May 1997.

Latest strong data on UK services sector may see Bank of England revising its growth forecasts upwards
Latest strong data on UK services sector may see Bank of England revising its growth forecasts upwards
Activity in Britain's services sector increased at the fastest rate since May 1997 last month, a closely watched survey showed today.

The data raised the prospect of a big jump in economic growth in the final three months of 2013.

Financial data company Markit said its services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 62.5 in October from September's 60.3.

This easily beat economists' forecasts for a fall to 59.8 and increased the chance that the Bank of England will revise up its quarterly growth forecasts next week.


Readings above 50 point to growth, and Markit said that combined with strong PMI surveys for manufacturing and construction, the latest data suggest quarterly economic growth of 1.3%, up from 0.8% between July and September.

"The UK economic recovery moved up a gear again in October," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

"Manufacturing, services and construction all continued to see very strong rates of expansion, pointing to an ongoing broad-based upturn. However it is the services sector which, due to its sheer size, is the major driving force," he added.

Britain's economy - which looked on the verge of its third recession in five years at the start of 2013 - has repeatedly surprised on the upside this year, and Markit's composite PMI is its highest since records began in 1996.

Britain's position contrasts sharply with that of the euro zone, where last week unemployment hit a record high while the annual inflation rate tumbled, bringing a possible European Central Bank interest rate cut into view.

However total UK output is still well below its 2008 peak - a much weaker state of affairs than in most other big advanced economies - and in August the Bank of England pledged not to raise interest rates before unemployment falls to 7%.

The bank forecast in August that Britain's jobless rate - now 7.7% - would take more than three years to sink that low, a timescale many economists think will be brought forward when the central bank publishes fresh forecasts next week.

The Markit survey showed that employers in the services sector were hiring staff at the fastest rate since May 1997. A broader composite employment index, which includes manufacturers and construction firms, rose to its highest since that series started in January 1998.

Markit's surveys do not cover the UK public sector - where more cuts to jobs and spending are planned as part of the government's austerity programme - or British retailers, who have had mixed fortunes due to falling disposable income.

The British Retail Consortium, which represents larger chains, said earlier today that its members experienced modest annual sales growth of 2.6% in value terms in October.

However, prospects for the rest of the services sector appear brighter. The services PMI's new orders component rose to 63.4 in October from 60.6 in September, indicating the fastest inflow of orders since the survey started in July 1996.

Firms reported getting longer-term contracts than before, and that some were linked to growing activity in the UK property market, where the government has announced several measures aimed at boosting construction and home purchase.

The services PMI also pointed to potential future inflation pressures. Firms reported that they were reaching capacity constraints, with backlogs of work rising at the fastest rate since May 1997, and that as well as hiring more staff, they were also raising salaries.

Companies also faced the biggest rise in input costs in eight months, and raised the prices they charged to consumers at the fastest rate since May 2011.
 

Article Source: http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1105/484741-uk-services-activity/

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Tuesday 5 November 2013

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U.K. Outlook Raised by NIESR as Property Boom Feeds Spending

This article by Jennifer Ryan of BloombergBusinessWeek on November 4th, 2013 reveals the fast growth of the UK economy as opposed to what was previously reported according to NIESR.

The U.K. economy will grow faster than previously forecast as a pickup in house prices stokes consumer spending, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 

Gross domestic product will expand 1.4 percent this year and 2 percent in 2014, a 0.2 percentage-point increase for each year, London-based Niesr said in a report published today. Forecasts for annual house-price growth in 2014 were raised to 5 percent from 0.5 percent, adding about 0.5 percentage point to spending projections.

“The housing market has thawed quite noticeably by almost every measure you want to look at,” Simon Kirby, an economist at Niesr, said at a press conference yesterday. “We’ve got quite a buoyant housing market compared with the previous few years. That feeds through and has a knock-on effect to our consumer-spending growth forecasts.”

k Ltd. said last week prices in England and Wales rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain since 2007.

Bubble Warnings

Help to Buy allows people to buy homes costing as much as 600,000 pounds ($957,000) with a 5 percent down payment. The program began in April with interest-free loans for buyers of newly built properties and the second phase -- mortgage guarantees covering all homes -- was brought forward to last month from January.

The plan has drawn warnings from the International Monetary Fund, and former Financial Services Authority Chairman Adair Turner said last month that Britain risks a repeat of the debt-fueled binge that led to the credit crisis.

“I don’t think any of us are fans of Help to Buy,” said Jonathan Portes, director at Niesr. Angus Armstrong, an economist at the institute, said “the design of it is so wretched, that’s what’s depressing about it.”

“Banks have an incentive to loosen underwriting requirements for mortgages,” Armstrong said. “If you’re going to intervene in the mortgage market there are a lot better ways to do that,” such as through the mortgage-backed securities market, he said.

‘Unsustainable’ Growth

Growth based on consumer spending is “unsustainable” because it’s based on the housing market rather than increases in real incomes, and it’s coming at the expense of household saving, Kirby said. Significant contributions from business investment and trade won’t start until 2015 and 2016, respectively, he said.

Unemployment, now at 7.7 percent, will fall below 7 percent at the start of 2016, though there’s a one-in-five chance it will reach that level in the first quarter of next year, Kirby said. A 7 percent jobless rate is the threshold at which Bank of England policy makers say they’ll consider raising the benchmark interest rate, provided none of the three “knockouts” in their forward-guidance policy are first triggered.

Kirby said that the knockout related to financial stability risks will probably lead to a rate increase in the second half of 2015. The caveats related to inflation forecasts and inflation expectations won’t be triggered, as inflation will drop to the bank’s 2 percent target in the first quarter of 2015, he said.

Article Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-04/u-dot-k-dot-outlook-raised-by-niesr-as-property-boom-feeds-spending

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Monday 4 November 2013

Treasury Considering Further Taxes on Foreign UK Property Owners

This article by Outlaw.com on November 1st, 2013 tells us about  George Orborne's statement to impose additional taxes on foreign owners of UK properties as revealed by press reports.

Sky News has reported that the Treasury is "actively investigating" imposing capital gains tax (CGT) on foreign owners who resell a UK property. Non-residents are currently exempt from CGT on property sales, while UK residents are subject to CGT on profits made when reselling all but their main homes. CGT is charged at 18% for basic rate taxpayers and 28% for higher rate taxpayers.g

A spokesperson for the Treasury told Out-Law.com that the report was "pre-Autumn Statement speculation".

According to the report, bringing foreign-owned properties into the scope of CGT would not raise significant sums, but would address concerns about favourable treatment for overseas property investors. Foreign property owners are liable for CGT in many other European countries.

Around 70% of the most expensive newly-built properties in London are purchased by non-UK citizens, and around 65% of these buyers intend to rent their properties rather than live in them, according to estate agency Knight Frank. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that house prices in London rose by nearly 9% in the year to August, compared with around 2% elsewhere in the UK.

Responding to the report, the British Property Federation said that the reason behind this increase was the lack of supply, not foreign buyers. Penalising people who wanted to invest in the UK would lead to fewer homes being built, as would the related uncertainty, its chief executive Liz Peace said.

"It makes no sense to slap kneejerk taxes on people who want to spend money in the UK and contribute to the UK economy," she said. "Uncertainty of this kind is hugely damaging to Britain's image as a country that is 'open for business', and far outweighs the paltry sums which this tax would raise – indeed, it is only with foreign investment that many London schemes are able to go ahead."

Property expert Suzanne Gill said that the introduction of CGT on these transactions would be "a real issue, administratively" for the tax authorities.

"An increase in stamp duty land tax (SDLT) would be less burdensome, and must be more likely: recent changes in rates have not affected the property market," she said.

"What does affect the market is uncertainty. An SDLT announcement can be quickly absorbed, but a period of consultation over CGT will have an impact - especially following on from the introduction of the annual tax on enveloped dwellings (ATED) earlier this year," she said.

ATED came into force on 1 April this year, and the first payments were due in October. It applies to company-owned residential properties valued at over £2 million, and is intended to ensure that people who purchase high value residential properties in the name of a company, partnership or other 'non-natural person' pay their fair share of tax. Dwellings purchased as part of a genuine property rental business, held for charitable purposes or run as a commercial business are exempt from the charge.

Article Source: http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2013/november/treasury-considering-further-taxes-on-foreign-uk-property-owners-according-to-press-reports/

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Thursday 31 October 2013

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Arranges Islamic Financing Deal for London Property

This article by WAM of gulfnews.com on October 30th, 2013 reveals the deal that marks ADIB's debut in London's real estate market.

Abu Dhabi: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) has arranged a £20 million (Dh118.02 million) structured Islamic financing transaction to fund the development of Westbourne House, a prime 1980s commercial property in central London, combining office and retail space.

The deal marks ADIB’s debut in London’s real estate market at a time when the British government is promoting the city as a centre for Islamic finance. British Prime Minister David Cameron told a gathering of political and business leaders on Tuesday that he wanted London to “stand alongside Dubai and Kuala Lumpur as one of the great capitals of Islamic finance anywhere in the world.”
ADIB’s financing package for Westbourne House was specifically tailored to meet the investors’ aims of acquiring, refurbishing and reselling high-value luxury properties to overseas buyers.
Arif Usmani, global head of wholesale banking at ADIB, said: “ADIB welcomes the increasingly high profile role being played by the UK’s financial services sector to encourage the global acceptance and growth of Islamic finance products and services. Resilient demand from international buyers for prime residential real estate has underpinned the performance of London’s property market which has outpaced most other markets in recent years. ADIB appreciates the value of building strategic partnerships with investors in international markets, which enable us to extend our global reach and to identify similar opportunities in London and other key international locations for our clients.”

Article Source: http://gulfnews.com/business/general/abu-dhabi-islamic-bank-arranges-islamic-financing-deal-for-london-property-1.1249375

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Wednesday 30 October 2013

Here's Who's Buying Those Insanely Expensive Homes In London

This article by Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider on October 28th, 2013 reveals the interested parties who are buying the insanely  expensive homes in London.

The insanely-hot London housing market has become the subject of global fascination.

But who's buying it all?

Deutsche Bank is out with a new report on the London housing market, and it includes this fascinating chart, which breaks down origin of purchaser by price range.

As you can see, at the low end, the dominant share of buyers is domestic UK buyers.

But at the high end, UK-based purchasers make up a tiny slice of the pie. A massive swath of the buyers is Eastern European or Russian. Chinese and Middle Eastern buyers are also quite significant. Chinese buyers actually make up a bigger purchase of the slightly cheaper ranges.

So basically, tons of Chinese buyers at the expensive levels, and then at the ultra-rich level it's a lot of Russian and Eastern European money.

london home buyers

Deutsche Bank, Knight Frank

And as for why they're buying so much.

Lots for investments, and some are buying for their children.

Screen Shot 2013 10 28 at 6.00.52 AM
Deutsche Bank

Article Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/whos-buying-london-property-2013-10

Tuesday 29 October 2013

Pound Little Changed Versus Euro as British House Prices Climb

This article by Emma Charlton of Bloomberg on October 29th, 2013 reveals that their is a house price increase in UK and changed the value of pound against euro.

The pound was little changed against the euro following last week’s drop as an industry report showed U.K. house prices increased for a ninth month in October.

Britain’s currency was within two U.S. cents of a four-week high versus the dollar as the data added to evidence the economy is strengthening. Gross domestic product grew 0.8 percent in the third quarter, the most since 2010, the government said last week. British government bonds were little changed.

“The U.K. data should continue to be pretty good,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The GDP data last week were pretty strong, so this is something which could lead to some more sterling strength.”

The pound traded at 85.45 pence per euro at 4:26 p.m. London time, after depreciating to 85.55 pence on Oct. 24, the weakest level since Aug. 29. It slid 0.9 percent last week. Sterling dropped 0.2 percent to $1.6132 after rising to $1.6257 on Oct. 23, the highest since Oct. 1.

Average home values in England and Wales rose 0.5 percent this month, matching September’s increase, Hometrack said in a statement. They’ve climbed each month since stagnating in January. Annual price inflation accelerated to 3.1 percent, the most since November 2007, according to the London-based property researcher.

Millions of U.K. commuters were told to stay at home and more than 220,000 properties lost power as southern England’s worst storm since 2008 blocked rail tracks, severed electricity cables and closed a nuclear power plant.

Best Performer

The pound gained 3.1 percent in the past three months, the best performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, on optimism economic growth was quickening. The euro rose 1.9 percent, while the dollar weakened 2.3 percent.

Under its forward-guidance policy announced Aug. 7, the Bank of England pledged to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent at least until unemployment falls to 7 percent, subject to caveats on inflation and financial stability. Officials are preparing new quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation, which Governor Mark Carney will present on Nov. 13.

“The forecasts that form the basis of the report appear set to show an upgraded growth outlook and a bringing forward of the unemployment rate threshold by one or two quarters compared to the previous forecast,” Paul Robson, a London-based foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, wrote in a note to clients today. “The focus now turns back to whether this solid pace of expansion can continue.”

The pound will “benefit” from any significant change to the BOE’s forecasts, he wrote.

U.K. Growth

The U.K. economy expanded 0.8 percent in the third quarter, up from 0.7 percent growth between April and June and the most since the second quarter of 2010, the Office for National Statistics said on Oct. 25.

The benchmark 10-year gilt yield was at 2.61 percent after falling 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, last week. The price of the 2.25 percent bond due in September 2023 was at 96.895.

The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year gilts instead of similar-maturity German bunds was 86 basis points, up from 51 basis points at the end of 2012.

“We see gilts as likely to remain vulnerable to better economic data,” Gary Dugan, Singapore-based chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East and Alan Higgins, London-based U.K. chief investment officer for Coutts & Co. wrote in a note to clients today. “We continue to expect them to underperform their peers in Europe, where growth is more sluggish.”

Gilts lost 2.2 percent this year through Oct. 25, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. Treasuries fell 1.8 percent and German securities slid 1.4 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Charlton in London at echarlton1@bloomberg.net
 
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net

Article Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/pound-little-changed-versus-dollar-after-u-k-house-price-report.html 

Friday 25 October 2013

89% 'Expect House Prices to Rise'

This article by the Express on October 15th, 2013 reveals that 9 in 10 homeowners confident that house prices to rise to highest level in four years.

Nine in 10 home owners expect house prices to rise in the coming months as market confidence surges to its highest level in at least four years, research has found.

Confidence in the housing market has surged to its highest level in four years research suggests Confidence in the housing market has surged to its highest level in four years, research suggests [PA]
 
Some 89% of more than 9,000 home owners surveyed by property search website Zoopla predict further house price hikes in the next six months, marking the highest proportion seen since its records began in 2009.

Just 4% of home owners across Britain believe prices will drop, down from 17% this time a year ago. People typically expect prices to rise by 5.7% between now and next spring, with London home owners predicting particularly strong growth at 8.3%.

Some 97% of Londoners surveyed expect to see values increase. Separate research by another website, Rightmove, published earlier this week showed that house sellers' asking prices in London have jumped by 10% in the space of just one month to reach a new high of over £544,000.

Two-thirds (66%) of those across the survey who think property prices are on the up said the level of property sales they have already seen in their local area is their main reason for believing this.

Despite home owner confidence remaining higher in the South than the rest of Britain, every region recorded an increase in the proportion of people who think prices in their area are rising. Even in areas of the North and Wales, where confidence was at its lowest, 84% of home owners believe prices are rising.

The West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber recorded the biggest jumps in home owner confidence over the last quarter. The proportion of owners predicting price rises has risen from 78% to 90% in the West Midlands, while Yorkshire and the Humber has seen a jump from 72% to 84%.

The low point for home owner confidence recorded by the study was in winter 2010, when just over half (54%) of home owners were expecting price increases.

The Zoopla research was conducted between the end of September and the start of October - just after Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the launch of new phase of the Government's flagship Help to Buy scheme offering state-backed low-deposit mortgages was being brought forward by three months.

Mr Cameron has rejected fears that the UK is heading for a house price bubble, with borrowers being encouraged to over-stretch themselves in a market where the number of houses for sale is in relatively short supply, which is putting an upward pressure on house prices. He has said the market is generally still recovering from a low base.

State-backed lenders Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), NatWest, Halifax and Bank of Scotland all started offering loans to first-time buyers and home-movers with 5% deposits under the new phase of the Help to Buy scheme from this month. Other major lenders including Santander, HSBC and Barclays have confirmed plans to join the scheme at a later date.

Lawrence Hall, spokesman for Zoopla, said the new phase of the Help to Buy should boost confidence further "across the country" and not just in London, which has continued to attract wealthy overseas buyers looking for a safe haven to place their cash.

Office for National Statistics recently showed that even before the new phase of Help to Buy was launched, UK house prices reached a record high of £247,000 in August and the British Bankers' Association (BBA) reported this week that mortgage approvals to home buyers are at a four-year high.

The Government's Funding for Lending scheme, which was launched in 2012 and has given lenders access to cheap finance to help borrowers, has already had a major impact on the housing market, with the choice of mortgages rapidly increasing and lenders dropping their rates to ultra-low levels.

Here is the proportion of home owners predicting house prices will rise over the next six months by region, according to Zoopla:

:: Yorkshire and the Humber, 84%

:: West Midlands, 90%

:: Wales, 84%

:: South-west England, 90%

:: South-east England, 95%

:: Scotland, 85%

:: North-west England, 84%

:: North-east England, 84%

:: London, 97%

:: East of England, 92%

:: East Midlands, 88%

Article Source: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/439012/89-expect-house-prices-to-rise

Thursday 24 October 2013

Mortgage Approvals Rise Ahead of ‘Help to Buy’

This engaging article by Lucy Tesseras of Marketing Week on October 24th, 2013 tells us that Help to Buy scheme could open doors to brands but could damaged consumer trust.

A rivival in the property market thanks to government schemes such as Help to Buy could open new doors for brands, but damaged consumer trust and squeezed disposable incomes requires a fresh marketing approach. 
 
Above: Furniture company BoConcept is tapping into the market where people can’t afford to move and so need to use the space they do have more effectively. It has seen a huge uptake of its free interior design service it launched to raise its brand profile

Signs that the property market is recovering may feel like a boon to businesses related to the sector, but brands must meet this potential mini-boom with new strategies, according to marketers from companies including Santander, retailer Furniture Village and estate agent Savills.

Mortgage lending, house prices and transactions are beginning to bounce back thanks in part to government incentives including the Help to Buy scheme, which means marketers will have to adapt quickly. House building was up 6 per cent in the second quarter of the year, while mortgage debt dropped by £15.4bn, according to the Bank of England. This will greatly affect industries beyond those that deal solely with the buying and selling of houses.

The £12bn Help to Buy scheme continues to be the cause of much debate both inside and outside government. Some parties expect it to fuel recovery and open up the market for first-time buyers, while others are against it, fearing it could create another pricing bubble.

Despite a Bloomberg survey of 31 economists finding that two-thirds believe it is a “bad” move, there is interest from consumers. The Royal Bank of Scotland is offering loans under the scheme and booked 5,000 mortgage appointments within three hours of the scheme being launched on 8 October; appointments doubled to 10,000 after four days – twice the number it typically expects.

Either way, there is movement in the sector so a level of adjustment is necessary in the way brands communicate with consumers.

Santander, which will begin offering mortgages under the scheme in the new year, has embarked on a big marketing push for its existing mortgage products. The ads are fronted by Formula One champion Jenson Button and their tone is very different from previous ones.

“The market has realised that price is not the be-all and end-all,” says Keith Moor, director of brand and communications. “Consumers are much more savvy. It’s a value judgement now. They understand that going with the cheapest doesn’t necessarily mean going with the best.

It’s still a competitive market and you have to be priced in the game to play it but companies are increasingly realising that leading on that one dimension is not wise. Banks have a big job to do to rebuild trust and part of that is not forcing people to make big decisions based solely on price.”

ikea-product-2013-460

This year, Ikea launched its ’Make small spaces big’ campaign in the UK and Ireland after finding that homes here are 15 per cent smaller than in Europe

Santander’s approach this time is based on insight about how consumers feel about mortgages. As they are a long-term investment, people fear it will be a noose around their neck.

“To answer that concern we have launched a range of mortgages that give people more freedom. People are free to overpay within the mortgage, but people are also free to leave whenever they want. It’s tapping into insight rather than the commoditised approach based on price,” says Moor.

Other banks are taking a similar tack. Lloyds Bank kicked off a £30m marketing campaign following its rebrand from Lloyds TSB in September, which focuses on the ‘moments that matter’. One example is an ad that tells the story of a 31-year-old man who is relieved of the frustrations of having to live with his parents after getting a mortgage through the bank. Barclays has based its proposition around listening to customers’ ideas, while TSB has relaunched with the message: ‘welcome back to local banking’.

Signs of initial recovery in the housing market have sparked renewed interest from investors too, encouraging estate agents Foxtons and Countrywide, as well as housebuilder Crest Nicholson, to float on the stock exchange. There has also been speculation that property website Zoopla is contemplating an IPO after it appointed Credit Suisse to explore “strategic opportunities”, though the Daily Mail and General Trust-owned business has downplayed such talk.

Zoopla estimates that the second phase of Help to Buy could reduce mortgage debt by £22.1bn. Its research finds there are 665,000 eligible homes on the market with an average price of £222,168. Under the mortgage guarantee scheme, the deposit needed to buy a property has dropped by two-thirds to £11,108.

As a result, property searches are going to be at an all-time high over the next year, according to the company, so it will be investing heavily to tap into consumer interest.
“First-time buyers are arguably the most important segment of the property market, as they allow those further up the chain to move, which creates supply and fluidity in the market,” says Charlotte Harper, marketing director of Zoopla Property Group. The company also owns PrimeLocation and has acquired four property portals from Trinity Mirror to compete with market leader Rightmove.

People spend more on their homes in the first 6 months than in the next 5 years so any growth in the property market is good news for us
Although the government schemes will not affect Zoopla’s marketing activity directly, says Harper, it is likely to influence some of the content it produces to ensure consumers have up-to-date information and understand the likely consequences of being involved in such a scheme (see Q&A).

The company became a sponsor of Premier League team West Bromwich Albion last season, which has helped it widen its reach and profile in the UK. It also launched its largest marketing campaign to date at the beginning of September, which incorporates outdoor ads for the first

time in addition to a major TV push. The multi-million pound ‘Smart’ campaign illustrates key features of the website’s property search, such as data about proximity to local schools and transport links.

“With the property market beginning to turn, consumers are looking for guidance and information in order to help them make better property-related decisions,” she says. “Our Smart campaign seeks to own the rational side of home-buying and help people to make confident and informed choices within that process.”

While some analysts have predicted the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee initiative will lead to another property boom, specialists at Savills and Knight Frank believe that idea might be premature.

Yolande Barnes, director of residential research at Savills, said in the firm’s Q3 market analysis: “Despite all the talk of an artificially induced housing boom, resulting from Help to Buy and other government measures, this infant housing market is far from performing like the previous housing cycle did [in 2006/2007]. We are still far from a housing market boom, although the next three years may look like a mini boom in relation to the past five.”

Knight Frank associate John Waters has a similar view but nonetheless is positive about the market.

“I don’t think it is likely to cause a pricing bubble,” he says. “Central London has been quite solid for the past few years in terms of pricing, but outside of London it is a very different story. As the broader economy improves, prices will begin to rise outside of the capital a lot more than they have done for a long time. I think it will help the market to recover and it will certainly help many people outside of London that are in negative equity to get back to where they were.”

Santander-JENSON-Button-ad-2013-fullwidth

Santander will offer mortgages under the Help to Buy scheme from early next year

Lynda Clark, editor of First Time Buyer magazine, which hosts the First Time Buyer Home Show in London, confirms that consumer’s interest is on the increase as both registrations and exhibitor numbers are “markedly up”.

“Help to Buy is making the prospect of owning a home more affordable for people, even in central London where prices are much higher than elsewhere in the country. I know there’s lots of controversy about it, but anything that helps somebody buy their own home, which will be one of the biggest purchases of their life, has got to be a good thing,” she says.

An uplift in the property market will benefit home retailers too. Charlie Harrison, marketing and ecommerce director at Furniture Village, says: “We know that people spend more on their homes in the first six months [after moving in] than in the next 5 years, so any growth in the property market is good news for furniture retailers.”

He expects to see many more first-time buyers entering the market following the launch of the second stage of Help to Buy and has been scaling up accordingly.

“We have been increasing our range of fast delivery items and introduced more lines that are available to take home the same day, such as vacuum packed mattresses that fit into a car. Furniture Village offers an interest-free credit option, which is also popular with customers furnishing their first home, and we will continue to include this as a key promotional message.”

While budgets might be tight, Capital Economics property economist Matthew Pointon does expect the fortunes of home retailers to bounce back if the housing market improves.

“When the number of transactions rise you tend to get an increase in spending on things such as white goods and home improvements as people do up their homes. I’m not sure we’ve seen much evidence of that occurring just yet but it is certainly what I would expect to happen if transactions really take off,” he says.

However, he is doubtful the mortgage guarantee aspect of Help to Buy will help to fuel the industry as much as the government believes, since the monthly payments on a 95 per cent mortgage could make it more expensive than renting.

“We’re not convinced it’s going to lead to a huge increase in buyers. Even though you can get a mortgage with a 5 per cent deposit, you still need to pass strict affordability checks in order to obtain them. Concerns that there is going to be a stampede of demand are exaggerated,” he adds.

Retailers may have another crack at the whip though, because over the past year while transactions have been down, people have turned their attention to renovating existing homes by building extensions, redecorating and generally improving their home environment.

Furniture Village, Ikea and BoConcept have all tapped into the idea of making better use of space in the realisation that not everyone has been in a position to move up the property ladder.

Harrison says: “As a result of the ‘don’t move, improve’ trend, Furniture Village has expanded its range of items that help homeowners make the most of their existing space. Products with hidden storage, such as ottoman beds, are proving popular and we have also seen an increase in sales of compact kitchen dining.”

Likewise, Ikea launched its ‘Make Small Spaces Big’ campaign in the UK and Ireland this summer after learning that homes in Britain are 15 per cent smaller than in Europe. Its global sales jumped 3.1 per cent to €27.9bn in the year to the end of August, although it does not separate UK figures.

BoConcept has seen a “huge increase” in the uptake of its free interior design service in the UK, according to country manager Zoe Shields.

“A trained member of the BoConcept sales team visits the customer’s home, measures the space and works with them to find the best possible solutions,” she says. They are then invited back to the store where they are presented with “mood boards, 3D design drawings and a set-up to reflect the products they have selected”.

As the market picks up, BoConcept will be looking to partner with local estate agents to offer the service to their clients and will also promote options such as deferred payment.
In June, B&Q launched a campaign urging homeowners to turn their attention to ‘unloved’ rooms. The retailer struggled in the early part of the year, blaming bad weather for the poor sales. But B&Q owner Kingfisher was more positive at the half-way point with a 4.3 per cent rise in group sales.

Zoopla-West-Brom-Sponsorship-2013-460

”With the property market beginning to turn, consumers are looking for guidance and information in order to help make better decisions.” - Charlotte Harper, managing director, Zoopla Property Group

Group chief executive Ian Cheshire says: “We remain ready to capitalise on any improvement in conditions or opportunities as they arise, including the potential pick-up in the UK housing market.”

However, Sainsbury’s chief executive Justin King is not so positive. He believes UK consumers are likely to have less disposable income this time next year as inflation will be around 3 per cent, while average wages will increase by 1 per cent. Despite the bleak outlook, the retailer has posted a 4.4 per cent lift in total sales for the first half of 2013.

“Although we are starting to see encouraging signs in key economic indicators, our customers’ approach to savvy shopping, which started at the beginning of the downturn, has persisted and continues,” he said in a statement.

The economic downturn has made consumers more cautious, which means companies need to be smarter in their communication.

“Whether there is a boom or not, I don’t think we will see organisations promoting in the same way,” says Santander’s Moor. “It is incumbent on us all to be responsible in the way that we lend and the conversations that we have with customers. Everyone is much more responsible than they used to be and that’s partly because consumers are more cautious but also because organisations need to address some of the concerns, fears and trust issues that people have, particularly with banks.”

Article Source: http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/trends/propertys-path-of-potential/4008241.article

Wednesday 23 October 2013

Home Owners Across the UK Confident About Property Price Rises

This article by Property Wire on October 22nd, 2013 reveals that UK homeowners are confident that property price rises over the next 12 months.

Households in every region across the UK expect the value of their property to increase over the next 12 months, with those in London the most confident about price growth followed by those in the South East.

The latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit, which reflects the opinions of 1,500 households across the country, illustrates the localised nature of the market at present, with households in the North East and Wales expecting more modest rises in values.

October’s survey is the first taken since the government brought forward the second phase of its Help to Buy scheme and, while the jump in price perceptions since September was relatively muted, the overall level of confidence about house price gains remains at unprecedented levels in the survey history.

Only one in 14 households expect the value of their home to decline over next 12 months and mortgage borrowers and those who own their home outright anticipate the largest rise in the value of their home in the next year.

Overall it is the seventh month in a row that the index has increased and more than 23% of the home owners surveyed said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, up from 6.3% in October last year. Only 5% of households said the value of their home had fallen over the last month, giving a HPSI reading of 59.1. Any figure under 50 indicates that prices are falling, and the lower the figure, the steeper the decline. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising.

This is up from last month’s record reading of 57.9 and marks the highest reading since the index began in February 2009. This is the most sustained period of upward price movements in three years.

The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose to a new high in October at 71.1, up from 69.6, in September. On a smoother three month average basis, the future HPSI reading was 68.8, up from 68.2 in the previous three month period.

‘The momentum in house price expectations gained over the past few months continued this month, with households across the country expecting the value of their home to rise over the next 12 months,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.
‘This is the latest evidence of increased confidence in the market, which has been boosted by the Government’s Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced at the start of the month,’ she explained.

‘The difference in the rate of growth expected in the regions is quite pronounced however, reflecting the localised nature of the housing market at present. Households in London and the South East expect the largest rise in prices over the next year, an indication of the strength of the housing market in the capital and in surrounding areas within easy commuting distance,’ she added.

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said the outlook is positive. ‘Looking ahead, only one in 14 households forecast a decline in their property value over the next 12 months. In London, the number of respondents expecting a price fall between now and October 2014 stands at around one in 30 households, and across the wider South East this proportion has reached just one in 20,’ he pointed out.

Article Source: http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-property-price-outlook-201310228373.html

Tuesday 22 October 2013

London House Prices 'Frenzy' Propels UK Property Market Back to Growth

According to Rightmove, a property website, home prices in UK increased by 2.8% in October as revealed on this article by Jerin Mathew of IB Times on October 21st, 2013.

UK home prices
UK home prices up 2.8% in October, according to Rightmove. (Reuters)
UK house prices rebounded from two previous monthly falls in October as they rose by more than £50,000 in the capital city.

According to property website Rightmove, the average asking price for homes increased by 2.8% to £252,418 (€156,274, $252,418) in October, returning to a growth trend that started in January 2013.

London witnessed an "unsustainable" 10.2% rise in asking prices in October, following falls of 2.8% and 1.5% in August and September, respectively.

Many of October's best performers are boroughs in inner London, the website said. Among London boroughs, City of Westminster saw the highest 11.9% increase in house prices, followed by an 11.8% increase each in Kensington and Chelsea and Hammersmith and Fulham.

Home prices are now up 5.6% on July's all-time high of £515,379, pushing the year-on-year increase in London to 13.8%, according to Rightmove.

"Fewer sellers coming to market in the capital during the traditional summer recess resulted in total price falls of 4.3% over August and September. However, this month's rebound in the number of sellers brings the quarterly growth figure back into line with the recent trend at around 2% a month," Rightmove director Mills Shipside said in a statement.

"Although not sustainable in the longer term, some agents currently report there is a buying frenzy in parts of prime inner London, with available stock so low that their shelves are now bare."

Demand-Supply Mismatch in London

Analysts have warned that the continued rise in home prices in the country is primarily due to higher housing demand exceeding supply.

Rightmove noted that "London needs an increase in supply from a combination of more new-build properties and more existing owners coming to market" in order to satisfy at least some of the rising demand.

It added that though the number of sellers in the capital increased 15% on month in October, the recovery is from a low base.

Overseas investors are considering London properties as safe havens for investments. Rising overseas demand is swallowing up much of the new-build supply, adding to shortages and price increase.

"At a time when safe assets are increasingly scarce, and developers are building and marketing a lot of one and two bedroom flats to meet that demand," said Shipside.
"While they can achieve volume sales at premium prices, this eats up a much needed source of fresh supply and drags up existing property prices at an even faster rate".

Income-House Price Mismatch

In addition, taking a mortgage will be a "greater challenge" for many Londoners that are planning to buy a house, says the website.

Rightmove research indicates that 80% of those who intend to buy in the next 12 months will put down a deposit of 10% or more, a substantially high amount given the current prices of houses.

It added that that the current range of 5% deposit Help to Buy products is of no benefit to many Londoners as the income to service a mortgage will be a greater challenge for them.

"In London, the buying power required to get onto or move up the housing ladder means you have to tap into the Bank of Mum and Dad rather than buy courtesy of a helping hand from Uncle George. Indeed, nearly two in five would be first-time buyers in the capital state that they expect to receive parental assistance," said Shipside.

Article Source: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/515552/20131021/rightmove-house-prices-london-safe-haven-demand.htm

Monday 21 October 2013

Future of London: The New York Times on the Foreign Rich Buying Up Property

This article by Michael Goldfarb of theguardian on October 20th 2013, tells us that property in the capital has become a global reserve currency for the elite.

Tower Bridge
Aerial view of Tower Bridge and the River Thames at night. Photograph: Jason Hawkes/theguardian.com
 
Our neighbours Lauren and Matt and their kids moved out of London to Cambridge the other week. Bibi, Andy and their two left for Bristol in June. Another of my eight-year-old's classmates and her family are heading out after Christmas. In my book this is a trend.

The moves are not examples of the lifecycle of the striving middle classes. Nor are they examples of middle-class folks being thrown on hard times by the sluggish British economy.

The families moving out had good incomes. Matt, who had been looking for a house for more than three years, summed up the reason for leaving best: "I don't want to be a slave to a mortgage for the next 25 years." Given the astronomical rise in house prices here, he wasn't speaking metaphorically.

This is what happens when property in your city becomes a global reserve currency. For that is what property in London has become, first and foremost. The property market is no longer about people making a long-term investment in owning their shelter, but a place for the world's richest people to park their money at an annualised rate of return of around 10%. It has made my adopted hometown a no-go area for increasing numbers of the middle class.

According to Britain's Office for National Statistics, London house prices rose by 9.7% between July 2012 and July 2013. In the surrounding suburbs they rose by a mere 2.6%. The farther away from London you go, the lower the numbers get. When you finally cross the border into Scotland, house prices actually decline by 2%.

The gap between London prices and those of the rest of the country is now at a historic high and there is only one way to explain it.

London houses and apartments are a form of money.

The reasons are simple to understand. In 2011, at the height of the eurozone crisis, citizens of the two countries at the epicentre of the cataclysm – Greece and Italy – bought £400m of London bricks and mortar. The Italian and Greek rich, fearing the single currency would collapse, got their money out of euros and parked it some place where government was relatively stable and the tax regime was gentle – very, very gentle. Considering that tax evasion in Italy and Greece was a significant contributory factor to their debt problems, it just seems grotesquely cynical to encourage this kind of behaviour.

But that's what Britain in general, and London in particular, does. The city is essentially a tax haven with great theatre, free museums and formidable dining. If you can demonstrate that you have a residence in another country, you are taxed only on your British earnings.

And the savings on property taxes are phenomenal. The property taxes on New York mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's $20m London home come to £2,143.30 a year. That's $3,430.

Clearly, the mayor bought in at the right time. The Google executive chairman, Eric Schmidt, is reported to be house-hunting here – he's looking in the £30m (about $48m) price range. Yet he will pay a similar amount in property tax as Bloomberg does.

There are other facets of London real estate as a medium of exchange. British gross domestic product has yet to return to pre-crash levels, but the financial services industry has roared back. Banks are paying out big bonuses again, and anyone looking for a safe investment is getting into London property.

From the top of Parliament Hill, on Hampstead Heath, look eastward. Out around the Olympic Park and beyond you see clumps of highrise apartment buildings sprouting like toadstools in a meadow after heavy rain. These aren't being built to meet the calamitous shortage of affordable family housing in the city; they are studio and one- or two-bedroom apartments.

The developments are financed by "off plan" buying. Bonus babies look at the blueprints and put their money down with no intention of living in what they've bought – just collecting decades of rent. And it's not just those who work in London's financial district, the City, who buy in. Hot money from China, Singapore, India and other countries with fast-growing economies and short traditions of good governance is pouring into London.

When I say property is money I mean it. An astonishing £83bn of properties were purchased in 2012 with no financing – all cash purchases. That's around $133bn.

I suppose the development that houses equals medium of exchange isn't all bad. I have friends who were very successful "creatives" (architects, cinematographers, commercial and television directors, etc) in their 30s and 40s. They bought houses when houses were places to live in. Once they turned 50, they passed through a mirror that turned them invisible. Work dried up. They have survived in London via the magic of remortgaging. They accept that their children will never be able to afford to stay on in the city.

The ripple effect of this frankly demented situation is felt all over town. The foreign rich and the City rich (there is some overlap) have made most of the centre of London unaffordable to any but their own kind. Those who were once considered rich – in the top 10% of earners – now can barely afford to move to my neighbourhood, where a typical row (terraced) house, with three bedrooms (the third bedroom wouldn't qualify as a closet in Manhattan) and a total living space of around 950 square feet tops a million dollars, three times what it cost in 2000.

The overall economy of Britain certainly doesn't justify these prices. Bank lending for businesses is flat, but mortgage lending? Hoo-ha, it's soaring up and up and the bulk of it is concentrated in London. It's as if the whole British economy is based on housing speculation in the capital.

David Cameron's government seems to think that is the case. Cameron may be pursuing austerity policies elsewhere in the economy, doing virtually nothing to help subsidise employment or industry, but his government has just started a "help to buy" scheme. The government will guarantee up to 15% of the purchase price of a house up to £600,000 ($960,000), if you have a 5% down payment.

The ordinary uses of the city have been changed beyond recognition. London was never a cheap place to live, but now more expensive property means more expensive everything else: restaurants, cinemas, bars and theatre tickets.As for services, the minimal tax paid by those who have made property into money means that a city whose population has increased by 14% in the last decade can't afford to build new schools. There will be a capacity shortfall of an estimated 90,000 places by 2015. Children won't be turned away from school, but class sizes will grow to untenable proportions.

So younger people, like my former neighbours, feel compelled to leave – even though they were making a very decent living. The delicate social ecology that made London's transformation into a great world city over the last two decades is past the tipping point, I fear.

For the quarter of a century I have lived here, a sense of community has defined my life. A very organic sense of London pride has allowed this city to withstand substantial shocks – some welcome, like its transformation into a true cosmopolis; some unwelcome, like jihadist terrorism.

Now it is beginning to feel that the next phase of London's history will be one of transience, with no allegiance to the city. I wonder whether those just parking their money here by buying real estate will ever be able to provide the communal sensibility to help the city survive the inevitable shocks it will experience in years to come.

How this story will end doesn't bear thinking about. It seems a very reasonable bet, though, that those who use London property as just another form of money aren't thinking about it at all.

Michael Goldfarb is a writer whose most recent book is Emancipation: How Liberating Europe's Jews From the Ghetto Led to Revolution and Renaissance
© 2013 The New York Times Syndicate

WHY MY STORY HAD SUCH AN IMPACT

When I wrote this piece in September, shortly after the ONS published its report showing a 9.7% increase in London house prices, I never thought to send it to a British paper. Everybody here knows the score – no one will publish it, I thought. Wrong. It went viral. Clearly, it spoke to people's fears.

They fear that property prices make no sense. It feels like 2005-07 all over again. People shake their heads and say it can't go on like this. Since nothing has changed in oversight of the City and the rest of the global financial system, people fear what the next property- driven crash will do to their lives.

People fear for their jobs. The time frame of productive economic life for the middle classes is growing shorter. People don't get into good full-time work now until their late 20s. By the time they are 50, they are living on borrowed time (it's more like 40 if they work at Silicon Roundabout). And anyway wages are not rising in line with house prices, so they have to take out massive mortgages.

Finally, they fear what I write about at the end of the essay. The balance in London's complex social ecology has been lost. The balance point in any society should be between stability and stasis. Stability is good; stasis is bad. What's happening in London has shifted the ground so dramatically that stability isn't something most people can contemplate. How do you raise your children knowing that the place they were born and raised is – on current trends – not a place they will be able to afford to live when they grow up?

Article Source: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/20/london-new-york-times-foreign-rich-property

Friday 18 October 2013

Rents in Private Sector Hit Record High

This article by BBC News Business on October 17th, 2013 is about the average cost of renting a home has now rise according to a survey by LSL Property Services.

Rental signs outside property  
The rental market has been affected by young adults' ability to buy

The average cost of renting a home privately across England and Wales has reached a record high of £757 a month, according to a survey.

Average rents rose by 2.1% in September compared with the same month a year earlier, LSL Property Services said.

This was a 1.8% increase on August, driven by a 3.3% rise in the south east of England.
The lettings group said that greater demand from tenants was pushing up prices.

"Higher rents in almost every region show that, despite government schemes, buying a first home is still a difficult aspiration," said David Newnes, director of LSL, which owns estate agents Reeds Rains and Your Move.

"This is not only down to low salary growth, but also a general shortage of supply - which is the underlying reason why homes are getting more expensive. The long-term trend to renting therefore looks unlikely to change significantly in the near future."

The government has brought forward its Help to Buy scheme, which aims to assist those who can afford mortgage payments, but struggle to raise the necessary deposit to secure a mortgage and purchase a home.

However, critics have said that the scheme could create a housing market bubble, with official statistics suggesting UK house prices are already at a record high.

The LSL survey suggested that tenants' finances were stretched. Some 8.5% of all rent across England and Wales was late in September, up from 7.8% in August.

Article Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24566849

Thursday 17 October 2013

Opportunities as the UK Property Market Comes Back to Life

This article by Richard Watt of Money Observer on October 16th, 2013 reveals that property market in the UK has now regain its life and eager for further developments.

Housing has a unique place in the UK economy. There is a special sense of fulfilment in home-ownership.

‘First-time’ buyers have a priority on the political agenda, while rising home values translate to near-instant voter gratification. A revival in the housing market is front-page news.

This national attitude to our homes creates a number of anomalies. One is the traditional approach to investing in the housing market through direct purchase, buying or upgrading a home or taking on buy-to-let. Home-ownership can be immensely rewarding, but a house is a particularly illiquid investment, while mortgages create a conduit from Bank of England base rates to disposable income that is short, brutal and sometimes nasty.

The flotation of Foxtons, the London-area estate agent, is a sign that the equity market is increasingly providing an alternative route to participation in the property market. A basket of shares might not keep you warm at night, not in a literal sense, but it is a lot more liquid, shouldn’t require a six-figure mortgage and its sensitivity to interest rates is a little less direct.

The Foxtons IPO was heavily over-subscribed, rising 16 per cent on the first day, valuing the business at more than £650 million. Foxtons has some 40 offices, mainly in central London. It is an exceptionally well-run company, with special strength in marketing. The average price of its house sales is £400,000, which puts it in the sweet spot in terms of transaction growth as the recovery develops. It is the right section of the market for the second phase of Help to Buy, which will provide mortgage indemnity for homes worth up to £600,000. In our view, Foxtons is in a position to increase its footprint potentially to 100 offices and possibly more.

Foxtons is not the first estate agent to come to the market. Countrywide floated in March and has outperformed the FTSE All Share (ex investment trusts) by 40 per cent since then (to 24 September). Savills, since its near-term trough in the midst of the eurozone crisis on 4 October 2011, has outperformed the FTSE All Share by 134 per cent.

Estate agents are an interesting and expanding area of the equity market, but the heart of the sector in equity terms is the housebuilders. The sector has seen tremendous outperformance in recent years, with key companies such as Persimmon and Barratt Developments, which over the past three years have outperformed the FTSE All Share by 126 per cent and 156 per cent respectively. In our view, despite inevitable set-backs, the sector should continue to offer robust, market-leading returns.

Current demographics suggest the demand for new housing in the UK should run at around 260,000 units per year, but the market is only supplying half that, around 130,000. It is highly unlikely that supply will reach, let alone overtake demand, on almost any scenario.

The block has been financing, with capital constrained banks requiring significant cash deposits. The government – and everybody who reads a newspaper or watches television or listens to the radio – is aware of this and given the economic benefits of house-building it has taken some bold measures.

The first phase of Help to Buy, under which the government lends new home-buyers 20 per cent of the price towards a 25 per cent deposit, is already having a significant impact, with 30 per cent of new-built homes being reserved through the scheme.

The second phase starts in 2014, providing mortgage guarantees, and should stimulate the market further. The schemes are intended as temporary kick-starts, but the first phase is proving so popular its £3.5 billion funding is likely to expire at some point in 2015 – a date whose proximity to the next election suggests to us it could be replaced, should need arise, by something either as good or better. In the meantime, the banking sector should by then be further on the road to recovery, opening the possibility that affordable commercial mortgages will increasingly become available.

A less publicised but important change is in planning law. Under the new National Planning Policy local authorities are required to maintain a five year plan. In the absence of such a plan, where any planning application is denied, it will be automatically granted on appeal.

This has unleashed fresh tracts of buildable land, a flow unlikely to be completely staunched as plans come to be adopted more widely. So much for the environment – what about the stock specifics? Housebuilders have done well – is there more to come? In my view there is and the numbers tend to support a positive argument. The key decision is whether the UK property market will continue to recover into the medium to longer term.

Let’s take Barratts as an example. We believe it is capable of achieving a return on equity of around 18 per cent on a two to three year view as it builds out land acquired in recent years at attractive profit margins. We expect the industry to be building around 170,000 units a year by the end of this period, significantly higher than current levels but still well below the demographic requirement. From this level, it fair to assume that Barratts’ unit sales can continue to grow at relatively modest minimum of 4-5 per cent a year – given natural demand, government support and ongoing economic recovery – that would leave Barratts with around 75 per cent of its earnings free to distribute as cash to shareholders, which at current share prices implies a dividend yield at around 10 per cent. That is a high yield for a well-run business in a growing market and we would expect most investors to accept something significantly lower, possibly down to around 5 per cent – and that, in turn, implies a much higher share price.

One of the most satisfying aspects of investing in UK mid-cap equities is the dynamism and variety of the opportunities. As the property market comes back to life, it is likely there will be mid-cap companies there to reap the benefits. And as they say in the property business – we are eager for further developments.

Article Source: http://www.moneyobserver.com/news/13-10-16/opportunities-uk-property-market-comes-back-to-life